How Did I Do? Election 2010

Are people reading my recommendations more this year? Are they starting to take me more seriously? Are people actually starting to read the issues and think about their implications before voting?

I'm not sure what happened this year, but the election results were much closer to my recommendations than they have been in past years. Probably just luck.

I called for a protest to vote "No" on all statewide ballot issues. In fact, almost all were soundly defeated. The only one that passed was a measure referred by the legislature to allow them to temporarily move the state capital in a state of emergency. Definitely not a big deal.

And voters approved every single county, city, and school district issue, including five tax increases. The only issue in the batch that I had recommended against, the Boulder Valley School District tax increase was certainly for a good cause. My concerns had to do with accountability, and hopefully BVSD will prove responsible with this new chunk of cash.

And maybe my winning streak will continue into future years.

Whose words?

Many are happy to interpret recent election results, but to me it's simple. People are out of work and taking it out on their elected officials.

According to my statistical analysis of past elections, the unemployment rate has been responsible for about a third of switched congressional seats. Further, when the unemployment rate is above about 7 percent, that contribution leaps to somewhere between half and two thirds.

When unemployment is high it is a huge factor in house seats being lost by the president's party. When unemployment is low, other factors come more into play.

Based on this theory, you could have predicted that Democrats would lose at least 40 seats in the House without looking at a single news story, poll result, party platform, or campaign ad.

But there's more to this story.

[more]

Summary of 2010 Boulder and Colorado Ballot Issues

Here are my analyses and recommendations for each issue on this year's ballot from the City of Boulder, Boulder County, and the State of Colorado. You may not agree with any particular recommendation, but you can easily see how I came to my recommendation and come to your own decison based on all of the facts. My biggest goal is to ensure that fewer people vote on issues based on either just the ads or just reading the issue title on the ballot.

Remember, when in doubt, vote no! Here's the list. The most important issues are bold. Click on any specific issue to see my full analysis.

Colorado Measures

Vote	Issue
NO	Amendment P Regulation of Games of Chance
NO	Amendment Q Temporary Location for the State Seat of Government
NO	Amendment R Exempt Possessory Interests in Real Property
NO	Amendment 60 Property Taxes
NO	Amendment 61 Limits on State and Local Government Borrowing
NO	Amendment 62 Application of the Term Person
NO	Amendment 63 Health Care Choice
NO	Proposition 101 Income, Vehicle, and Telecommunication Taxes and Fees
NO	Proposition 102 Criteria for Release to Pretrial Services Programs

Boulder County Measures

Vote	Issue
YES	Issue 1A Human Services Safety Net Mill Levy Increase
YES	Issue 1B Countywide Open Space Sales and Use Tax Increase and Bond Authorization

City of Boulder Measures

Vote	Issue
YES	Issue 2A Public Accomodations Tax
YES	Issue 2B Five Year Utility Occupation Tax to Replace Lost Franchise Fee Revenue
YES	Question 2C Height Limit

Boulder Valley School District Measures

Vote	Issue
NO	Issue 3A Property Tax Increase